Political betting and political polling share a common goal of delivering the most accurate predictions possible for election outcomes and related trends. However, they often yield wildly different results. We’re here to help you understand why this happens, including the strengths and weaknesses of each approach, so you can identify the best predictor🐬 and effectively utilize this information for betting.
Accuracy: A Tale of Two Methods
꧃ Opinion polls and betting odds are calculated using distinct methodologies.
Opinion pollsౠ typically gather data through surveys, asking a sample of the population their preferences regarding candidates or issues. Pollsters analyze this data, applying statistical techniques to, at least in theory, reduce biases and ensure they accurately represent the larger population.
In contrast, betting odds💎 are set by bookmakers who consider a wide range of factors, including polling data, historical trends, and expert analysis. These odds are adjusted based on the amount of money wagered on each candidate.
While both methods can be valuable indicators of election outcomes, they answer different questions. Voter polls reveal which party or candidate voters prefer, while political betting odds☂ indicate who the public believes is most likely to win. Because general election odds are updated continuously, tend to have less bias, and have a stronger history of accuracy, they are generally seen as more reliable for predicting results.
Political Betting Historical Data & Outcomes
🍒 More often than not, betting odds provide a broadly accurate reflection of public sentiment. They offer an unbiased reflection of public opinion, quickly adapting to new information and shifts in attitudes. Bookmakers are motivated to minimize losses, just like in sports betting, and they tend to succeed in predicting outcomes over the long term.
However, there are exceptions. Odds can be influenced by speculative behaviour𝄹, which can lead to distorted results. And sometimes, the analytical models used by bookmakers simply get it wrong.
ꦇ Here, we’ll explore historical instances of when betting odds have accurately predicted outcomes, when they got it wrong, and where they landed somewhere in-between. These examples illustrate that while bookmakers are not infallible, their track record of largely accurate predictions is something to pay heed to. Understanding this history is crucial for developing a successful betting strategy for political markets.
Accurate♉ – Bookmakers consistently backed Barack Obama’s chances of defeating Mitt Romney in the 2012 U.S Presidential Election.
ꩵ Ladbrokes, for instance, gave on an Obama victory, implying a 71.4% chance of success. This prediction was validated when Obama secured 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206, despite a narrow popular vote margin of just 3.9%. Meanwhile, various polls presented a wide and often , many of which missed the mark.
Accurate – Despite polling data suggesting a tightly contested race, betting markets consistently favoured the “No” vote throughout the Scottish Independence Referendum. Interestingly, it was a market where betting exchanges🉐 were especially accurate, with Betfair putting the likely probability of a “No” vote” . This prediction proved to be not only correct but also more reliable than the polling results. While surveys , betting odds reflected a clearer consensus. Ultimately, the “No” campaign won with , illustrating how betting markets can sometimes provide a more accurate gauge of public sentiment than traditional polling methods.
Accurate🙈 – While the Conservatives victory in the 2015 UK General Election wasn’t entirely unexpected, the way they won shook public confidence in opinion polls for years. A total of predicted a range of outcomes from a hung parament to, at most, a six-point Conservative lead. None foresaw the seven-point lead and decisive majority they eventually secured. However, the betting markets consistently put the Conservatives as heavy favourites with from the likes of Ladbrokes and Betfair, offering not only accurate odds but predictions that proved far more reliable than the polls.
Inaccurate💧 – It seems like everyone got the result of the wrong. Pollsters, punters and US elections betting odds almost unanimously predicted a victory for Hillary Clinton. Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and Betfair, all gave the Democrats around an . However, despite losing the popular vote by 2.9 million votes, it was Donald Trump who delivered a victory speech from his New York campaign headquarters in the early hours of November 9th 2016. This election serves as a striking example of how unexpected outcomes can challenge the accuracy of both polls and betting markets.
Somewhat accurate🍸 – Both political betting markets and polling sources were slow to recognize Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche! as the likely winner of the 2017 Presidential Election. Early first-round polls consistently showed Francois Fillon of The Republicans and Marine Le Pen of The National Front leading from late 2016 to early 2017.
🌺 However, after Fillon became embroiled in the “” scandal, where he was accused of paying family members for fictitious jobs, Macron emerged as a serious contender.
⭕ Polls, however, were slow to reflect this shift until Macron’s momentum was undeniable. Bookmakers were also late to adjust, with Le Pen still receiving even when it was clear to many that the National Front would lose decisively. Many attribute this to the shock of Donald Trumps’ unexpected victory in the U.S Presidential Election, which led some bettors to gamble on another upset.
🅰 This highlights both the limitations of polling data and the vulnerabilities of election odds to sudden waves of betting activity. Although both polling data and bookmakers eventually backed Macron, their delayed recognition and failure to foresee the scale of his highlights flaws in both.
ꦅBetting politics odds are flawed, view this as an opportunity
🍸The key to securing strong returns is identifying when bookmakers have misjudged the odds. If they were always right, you’d stuck with only low-risk, low-reward bets. Rather than being discouraged by occasional inaccuracies in betting markets, see them as a critical aspect of a successful betting strategy. Spotting these missteps is where the real value lies.
Political Polling Historical Data & Outcomes
The accuracy of political polls is complex and depends on several key factors, including sample size, methodology, and timing.
꧅ A larger, more diverse sample size generally yields more reliable results, as it better represents the population. Polls using random sampling, where every individual has an equal chance of being selected, tend to be more accurate. Additionally, how the questions are framed, the method of data collection (whether by phone, online or in person), and the demographic balance of respondents can significantly influence the final outcome.
🥃 Political polls also face limitations due to nonresponse bias and social desirability bias. Nonresponse bias occurs when certain groups, like younger voters and those without internet access, are less likely to participate, skewing the data. In the UK, the phenomenon known as “” refers to Conservative voters misrepresenting their true preferences, claiming to be undecided or supporting other parties. This has contributed to several major polling inaccuracies, as seen in the 1992 and 2015 UK general elections, where results differed dramatically from pre-election polling.
♋ Timing plays a crucial role in poll accuracy as well. Polls conducted early in the election cycle are flawed as public opinion often shifts significantly as campaigns develop, debates are held, and new issues emerge. While polls are far from infallible, especially in close races or during unpredictable campaigns, they remain an important tool for understanding voter sentiment.
Inaccurate – The 1948 U.S Presidential election between Harry Truman and Thomas Dewey remains one of the most famous examples of polling failure. Nearly every major poll confidently predicted a Dewey victory, with some even halting their polling weeks before Election Day, assuming the outcome was a foregone conclusion. The major pollsters of the time, including George Gallup, Elmo Roper and Archibald M. Crossley, all predicted Dewey winning easily by between 5 and 15 points. There was even the infamous “” headlined newspaper printed by the Chicago Daily Tribune. However, the actual results stunned the nation, as Truman defied expectations and won with to Dewey’s 45%. This highlights the dangers of premature polling, underestimating late-deciding voters and relying on flawed sampling methods. It is worth noting that both political betting and political polling have become much more sophisticated in their predictions since this event.
Inaccurate – In early 1992, momentum seemed to be on Labour’s side. After 13 years of Conservative rule, the UK was mired in its , with rising unemployment, soaring interest rates and collapsing housing prices. Margeret Thatcher had stepped down, and her successor, John Major, lacked her popularity. Early polls reflected a desire for change, with many predicting a hung parliament and a neck-and-neck race between the two major parties. This expectation persisted right up to the exit polls. However, the actual results shocked many, including the Conservatives themselves: they secured 42.8% of the vote to Labour’s 35.2%. Several factors likely contributed to this unexpected outcome, including the “Shy Tory” phenomenon, where Conservative voters were reluctant to disclose their intentions, the unpopularity of Labour leader Neil Kinnock, and tactical voting by Liberal Democrat supporters to prevent a Labour victory. Additionally, up to half a million people are believed to have avoided registering to vote to escape paying the poll tax. Ultimately, the underscored just how hard to predict electoral outcomes can be, often defying both polls and UK politics betting odds makers.
Accurate൲ – The honeymoon phase was still in full swing in the first election following Labour’s historic victory in 2001. Political betting and political polling analysts were aligned, another big victory for Blair seemed inevitable, and they were right. Notably, the MORI exit polls from ITV demonstrated remarkable accuracy for the winning party, they predicted 417 seats for Labour, they achieved 416. The predictions for other parties were also impressive, the Conservatives were forecasted to secure between 154 and 177 seats, and won 166, while the Liberal Democrats were expected to win between 44 and 58 seats, landing at 52. This election showcased some of the most accurate political polls in the UK ever.
Accurate – After the polling failures of 2015, confidence for political polls in the UK was somewhat restored by a series of accurate predictions during the 2019 UK general elections. Polls had forecasted Labour at 33% and the Conservatives at 43%, with the actual results closely matching those figures. Labour landed exactly at 33% while the Conservatives slightly exceeded expectations with 45%. The only other notable outlier was the Brexit Party, who garnered 2% of the vote, just below the predicted 3%. Aside from this minor deviation, the polls not only correctly identified the winner but also accurately reflected nearly every party’s share of the vote. That’s more detail than even accurate general election odds, which gave Boris Johnson a 1/25 (or 96.2%) chance of winning. This example highlights how valuable polls can be when executed properly and when the campaign remains relatively stable without major electoral upheavals.
Somewhat accurate – Polling data can provide more detailed information than political betting sites🍰, but this can also mean they are imprecise in other areas. For example, in the 2024 UK general election, polls predicted a Labour victory, which indeed occurred, with the party securing the largest number of seats since Tony Blair’s landslide in 1997. However, we refer to these polls as “somewhat accurate” because they . Many polls estimated Labour would achieve around 39% of the vote, while the actual figure was closer to one-third. Their landslide victory resulted primarily from a fragmented vote among smaller parties and a dismal performance by the Conservatives, who recorded their . Thus, while the polls correctly predicted Labour’s success, they would have misled anyone looking to back general election odds on the specifics of the popular vote.
Money vs Opinion – Which One Is The Best Indicator?
While political polls have occasionally outperformed betting markets in terms of accuracy, betting markets are more reliable൲. This is because they better capture real-time shifts in public sentiment, incorporate a wider range of factors – including polling data – and are less prone to the time, bias, and methodological issues that can undermine the accuracy of opinion polls.
🎐 However, this is only the case if we are looking for a binary answer. For instance, if we’re looking at who will become the next Prime Minister then the general election odds tend to be more reliable than political polls in the UK. That said, polling data can tell us much more about the likely seats and percentage of the popular vote, and even provide specifics on how the public thinks on everything from candidates to the economy.
💯 So, each is better at different things. Money is the best indicator of binary outcomes like who will win, while political polls provide deeper insights into the nuances of voter behaviour, party performance, and issue-based sentiment.
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🍬Crafting a Strategy with Opinion Polls and Betting Odds
Understanding the strengths of political betting and political polling is one thing, but knowing how to use this information is what really matters in terms of crafting to a solid betting strategy. I see it like the relationship between sports betting markets and the relevant statistical information related to that event. If I want to know who’s likely to win a football game, I’d start with the bookmaker’s odds and consider the implied probabilities. But to really assess the accuracy of those odds, I’d also dive into recent results and performance stats. This gives me the fullest possible picture of the possibilities and helps me make my own informed predictions.
🐽The same approach applies to political betting. Use UK politics betting odds as your primary indicator but broaden your perspective by comparing polls and analysing whether they align with your own predictions. This helps you decide whether the market odds offer decent value. And just as importantly, understanding where both methods can fail is key to spotting opportunities. Only by recognizing when the polls or markets are off can you maximize your potential returns.
Political Odds & Political Polls: The Similarities
To make the most of both political betting𒁃 and political polling sources, it’s essential to understand their similarities and differences. This will help you determine which is most helpful in predicting whatever aspect of a political race you’re interested in.
Goal:﷽ Both political betting and polls aim to predict election outcomes and public sentiment, each is useful in helping bettors measure likely results.
Data-Driven Approach:🎃 Both rely on data to make predictions. However, their methodology is distinct. Polls use survey data, while betting odds incorporate polling data alongside other factors like expert analysis and historical trends.
Subject to Error:🎀 Neither method is infallible, especially in close elections. That said, general election odds are usually more accurate than the polls.
Influence of Public Opinion:♕ Both are strongly shaped by public sentiment. Polls directly measure voter preferences and opinions, while betting odds aim to predict election outcomes, with public sentiment playing a key role in shaping those predictions.
Simple Implied Probability: Polling data and betting odds can be understood as implied probabilities. Polls present this information directly as percentages, while betting odds require conversion♒ to understand their implied likelihood. For example, if a party has general election odds of 4/1, this indicates the bookmakers estimates a 20% chance of them winning.
Political Odds & Political Polls: The Differences
ﷺ Although odds and polls share a common goal and several fundamental similarities, their distinctions are equally important to understand. From the methodologies they employ to the specific insights they provide, recognising how each approach operates will enhance your ability to analyze political races effectively. Here, we’ll explore the key differences between political betting and political polling, highlighting what sets them apart so you can best leverage their unique strengths for your own predictions.
Subject of assessment:✤ Polls measure who voters prefer or intend to vote for, while betting odds reflect who the bookmaker thinks is most likely to win. While the goal is to predict a political outcome, each is coming at the question at a completely different angle.
Adaptability:๊ Betting odds are continuously updated in real-time, making them more dynamic and better equipped to react to changes in public sentiment. Polls, on the other hand, are static until new surveys are conducted. This is a major disadvantage. Political campaigns are constantly changing, everything from a debate performance to a scandal could upend all electoral chances overnight and bookmakers are able to respond to them much more immediately than polling data can capture.
Influence of Large Bets:ꦬ Financial stakes significant shape all betting markets, and political odds are no exception. Bookmakers continuously adjust odds to balance risk and minimize potential losses, while polls rely solely on statistical analysis. A notable example is the 2012 election, where a single trader is believed to have placed between on Mitt Romney to win, accounting for nearly a third of all bets on him. This substantial investment will have shifted Romney’s odds regardless of logic, highlighting a vulnerability in betting markets that does not affect political polling.
Sample Size:📖 In the UK, most political opinion polls typically aim for a , with companies like YouGov, Survation, Focaldata, and RedField & Wilson often surveying tens of thousands. While exact figured for the number of individuals betting on UK General Election odds are not publicly disclosed, there is no doubt that betting markets consider a far larger and more diverse pool of opinion than traditional polls.
Detail:♓ Polls offer greater insights into voter behaviour, including demographic breakdowns, issue-based opinions and potential vote shares. In contrast, betting odds focus more narrowly on the likely of specific outcomes, like who will become the next Prime Minister.
What Can We Expect From Upcoming Elections?
🐽 To best understand different political indicators, we think it’s helpful to see them in action on current markets.
ꦍ With upcoming elections on the horizon in both the US and UK – one imminent and the other still undetermined – we see a prime opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of political betting and political polling.
💧 Here, we’ll explore the current landscape surrounding the US and UK elections as reflected by the odds and polling data, which should provide detailed indications on how the public perceives the parties and candidates involved as the elections approach.
View all indicators as fluid
🐟It’s crucial to recognise that both odds and polls can fluctuate over time – odds shift in response to public sentiment, while polls are updates with each new survey. Therefore, everything discussed here represents a snapshot of a specific moment. Staying informed and aware of the latest developments is essential for effectively utilizing these resources.
US Presidential Election
ꩲ To understand how political polls can tell a story, just look at the upcoming 2024 US presidential election. In June, both President Biden and former President Trump were polling at 44%. However, as concerns about grew, the Republican Party began to gain traction. Trump led the race at 45% compared to Biden’s 44% by mid-June. Public opinion then shifted dramatically after the , where Biden appeared confused and vulnerable, resulting in a surge for Trump, who climbed to 47% in the polls.
🐲 This trend persisted until Biden withdrew from the race, paving the way for Kamala Harris as the next Democratic candidate. The next set of polls saw Harris come in strongly at 46%, ultimately rising to 47%, while Trump dropped to 42% by the end of August – a complete reversal from the results following the first presidential debate. In the weeks that followed, the numbers settled around 48% for Harris and 45% for Trump, after other candidates, most notably RFK Jr, .
♍ These polls indicate that more people plan on voting for Kamala Harris than Donald Trump. Betting odds appear to align with this sentiment, suggesting that Harris has a slightly higher chance of winning the presidency than Trump. At the time of writing, the most favourable odds for Harris stand at 5/6, reflecting an implied probability of 54.5%, while Trump’s odds are at 11/10, indicating an implied probability of 47.6%.
𒁏 Put simply, all these results complement each other. The polls show a small lead for Harris in voter intentions, while the odds suggest a higher statistical advantage for the Democrats.
| Candidate | Polling Percentage | Betting Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | 48% | 5/6 | 54.5% |
| Donald Trump | 45% | 11/10 | 47.6% |
♈Exercise caution regarding indicator vulnerabilities
🐈While the results may appear straightforward, the reality is more complex. The Electoral College system means that polling results may better reflect the popular vote than the actual election outcomes. Additionally, betting odds can be heavily influenced by intense wagering on both sides, which is common in a fiercely contented election. Both political betting and political polling information is valuable, but it’s crucial to carefully consider their limitations before you make any decisions on US elections betting odds.
UK General Election
ไ It may be some time before the next UK general election, even with Keir Starmer’s government starting off amid controversy, it’s unlikely that Labour will jeopardise their chance to govern after 14 years out of power.
𒉰 However, we already have access to some early polls and betting odds, providing an opportunity to assess the political landscape at the beginning of a premiership rather than just before an election. Although there are no available polls for voting intentions yet, surveys have suggested a dramatic decline in support for the government.
𒆙 For instance, a poll from the Observer reports a in popularity since the July election. Additionally, The Telegraph reports that people believe that Labour will lose the next election, partly due to scandals involving and the unpopular decision to cut for pensioners.
💎 In contrast, betting markets are more optimistic. The longest odds currently available give Labour a 5/6 chance of winning the most seats in the next election, while the Conservatives are at 9/4. This translates to a 54.5% chance of Labour remaining in government after the next election, compared to a 30.4% probability for the Conservatives.
| Indicator | Labour | Conservatives |
|---|---|---|
| Public Perception Poll | 60% believe Labour will lose the next election | N/A |
| Betting Odds | 5/6 | 9/4 |
| Implied Probability | 54.5% | 30.4% |
Early polls and odds unlikely to be accurate
At this stage, it’s too early to predict the outcome of the next UK election with much certainty. Public opinion and voting intentions are bound to shift as various factors play out over the course of the governments first term. Both political polls and betting markets are currently limited in their ability to foresee these changes.
What I find particularly interesting here is that, is this case, the polls seem to reflect the current public mood more accurately than the typically more fluid betting odds. Bookmakers, it appears, are cautious about overreacting to short-term tensions likely to have simmered come election season.
☂It’s a fine example of how polls can be more versatile in the questions they ask compared to betting markets.
ThePuntersPage Final Say
ꦗ Betting markets are generally more likely to produce accurate predictions than polling data. While neither is perfect, polling has historically been more prone to significant errors. Betting odds tend to reflect real-time sentiment and adapt to new developments faster, whereas polls can sometimes lag behind or misrepresent public opinion due to sampling errors, outdated methodologies, or social desirability bias.
🐻 That said, political betting and political polling are best considered in tandem. Both provide valuable insights but come with their own strengths and limitations. Betting odds can swiftly adjust to current events, offering a more dynamic and accurate snapshot of the current political climate, while polls provide more details. Where one falls short, the other can help fill in the gaps.
♛ To maximise your chances of success in political betting markets, combine insights from both metrics alongside your own analysis. This balanced approach will help you make informed decisions and improve your chance of netting returns.
References
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𝓡 – This guide from the British Polling Council outlines key points about opinions polls for journalists. It emphasized the importance of representative samples, noting that polling companies often adjust data to match population demographics. It also makes the point that non-scientific surveys, like self-selecting internet or phone-in polls, are typically unreliable. The guide highlights other potential errors, such as biased samples and poor questioning. It also provides criteria for assessing the credibility of polls, including who conducted them, sample size, timing and methodology.
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😼 – The homepage of FiveThirtyEight, an ABC News affiliated website specializing in opinion polls. It provides a comprehensive overview of all major presidential polls, factoring in recency, methodology and sample size. Currently, it is one of the most reliable and insightful sources for US election polling data.
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🎐 – The homepage of Electoral Calculus, a leading political forecasting website that predicts future UK general election outcomes. It features election data, predictions, analysis, and polls. Renowned for its accuracy, Electoral Calculus has correctly forecasted the party with the most seats in every UK election since its inception, except in 1992.
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🧔 – This series of pages from Flutter Entertainment, the international sports betting company behind Betfair, FanDuel, Paddy Power and Poker Stars, delves into how bookmakers establish political odds. It offers valuable insights into the differences between opinion polls and betting markets, as explained by those who set the odds.
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5.
🍌 – This article from Business Insider explains how prediction markets may offer a more accurate method for forecasting election results compared to traditional polling methods. It highlights the success of prediction markets in previous presidential cycles and their ability to react swiftly to significant political events. Additionally, it discusses the potential benefits of legalising these markets throughout the US to improve accuracy and reduce the risk of manipulation.
FAQs
🐼They are surveys that measure public opinion on political issues, candidates, or elections.
♎First and foremost, they ask fundamentally different questions. Political odds focus on which candidate the public perceives as most likely to win, while political polls measure voter preferences for candidates or parties, as well as opinions on related political issues. Additionally, their methodologies differ. Opinion polls gather data through surveying a representative sample of the population regarding specific issues. In contrast, betting odds are set by bookmakers, who analyze various factors – including polling data and betting patterns, and adjust the odds based on the amount wagered.
🌱No, betting odds are typically regarded as more accurate predictors than polls. This is because they are updated in real-time based on market activity, take into account a wider range of factors, and are less affected by issues related to sample size.
ဣJust like all forms of betting, the legality of political betting entirely depends on the jurisdiction. For instance, election wagers are banned in the US while political betting is entirely legal in the UK.